Log-normal distribution
If X is normally distributed then Y = e^X is log-normal: its logarithm is normal. Equivalently, if you multiply many independent positive random factors together, the product tends to a log-normal by the Central Limit Theorem applied on the log scale.
What to notice
- Increasing σ stretches the tail dramatically to the right while the mode moves left. The mean pulls far above the median.
- Amber dashes mark the median , rose dashes the mean . The gap between them grows with σ — a diagnostic for skew.
- The mode (peak of the density) sits at , lower still.
Why multiplicative processes produce log-normals
Additive processes → normal (Central Limit Theorem). Multiplicative processes → log-normal. Take logarithms: log(X₁ · X₂ · … · Xₙ) = log X₁ + log X₂ + … + log Xₙ, which is a sum. By CLT, this sum approaches normal, so the product approaches log-normal.
This is why log-normal distributions appear wherever quantities grow by percentage shocks: stock prices, income distributions, city populations, biological measurements like body weight, and pandemic spreading factors.
Mean vs median divergence
The mean is pulled right by rare extreme values — a property shared by all right-skewed distributions, but especially severe for the log-normal. Reported “average income” is almost always larger than “typical income” for this reason. The median is a more representative central value for log-normal data.