Central Limit Theorem

Take any distribution with a finite mean and variance. Draw independent samples from it and average them. Now repeat — thousands of times — and look at the distribution of those averages. No matter what you started with, that distribution gets arbitrarily close to a bell curve as grows.

Source distribution:
Source
00.20.4−4−2024

μ = 0.00, σ = 2.06

2000 sample means, each of n = 1
00.20.40.60.81−8−6−4−202468sample meandensity

Curve: theoretical limit N(μ, σ²/n), with σ/√n = 2.062

What to try

  • Start with n = 1. The histogram looks like the source — uniform is flat, exponential is skewed, bimodal has two humps.
  • Now drag n to 5. Already bell-ish, even for bimodal.
  • Push n to 30. Essentially Gaussian for all three.
  • Flip between sources while keeping n high — the histogram shape barely changes, only its width.

What to notice

  • The centre of the bell is always the source mean. Averaging doesn’t move it.
  • The spread is — the source’s standard deviation divided by . Double n, narrow by .
  • You need a surprisingly small n. Textbooks quote 30 as a rule of thumb; for a well-behaved source, 10 is often enough.
  • For pathological sources — say, a Cauchy distribution with no defined variance — the theorem doesn’t apply and averaging doesn’t help.

Why it matters

This is why so much of classical statistics treats errors as normal: averages (sums) of many small effects are almost always approximately Gaussian, even when no individual effect is. The CLT is the bridge between messy real-world sampling and the clean theory of the normal distribution.