Central Limit Theorem
Take any distribution with a finite mean and variance. Draw independent samples from it and average them. Now repeat — thousands of times — and look at the distribution of those averages. No matter what you started with, that distribution gets arbitrarily close to a bell curve as grows.
Source distribution:
Source
μ = 0.00, σ = 2.06
2000 sample means, each of n = 1
Curve: theoretical limit N(μ, σ²/n), with σ/√n = 2.062
What to try
- Start with n = 1. The histogram looks like the source — uniform is flat, exponential is skewed, bimodal has two humps.
- Now drag n to 5. Already bell-ish, even for bimodal.
- Push n to 30. Essentially Gaussian for all three.
- Flip between sources while keeping n high — the histogram shape barely changes, only its width.
What to notice
- The centre of the bell is always the source mean. Averaging doesn’t move it.
- The spread is — the source’s standard deviation divided by . Double n, narrow by .
- You need a surprisingly small n. Textbooks quote 30 as a rule of thumb; for a well-behaved source, 10 is often enough.
- For pathological sources — say, a Cauchy distribution with no defined variance — the theorem doesn’t apply and averaging doesn’t help.
Why it matters
This is why so much of classical statistics treats errors as normal: averages (sums) of many small effects are almost always approximately Gaussian, even when no individual effect is. The CLT is the bridge between messy real-world sampling and the clean theory of the normal distribution.