Student’s t distribution

William Gosset published this under the pseudonym “Student” in 1908 to model small-sample uncertainty. It looks like a Normal but has heavier tails — more room for extreme values when you don’t yet know the population variance.

00.10.20.30.40.5−6−4−20246xdensity
t3.0 Normal(0, 1)
Bars: 1000 samples via inverse CDF. Solid: Student's t PDF. Dashed: Standard Normal for reference. As grows, the two curves merge.

What to notice

  • Small means fat tails. At it’s the Cauchy distribution — no finite mean. At it has a mean but infinite variance.
  • Large means Gaussian. The two curves are visually indistinguishable once . That’s why textbook z-tests and t-tests converge when n is large.
  • Algebraic tails. The density falls off like — a polynomial decay, in contrast to the Normal’s exponential one.

Where it comes from

If you take a standard Normal and divide by the square root of an independent chi-squared scaled by its degrees of freedom, you get a t:

Plug in the sample mean and sample variance of n iid Normal draws and you get the classic t-statistic. The degrees of freedom = n − 1 capture how much the uncertainty about inflates the distribution of the mean.